Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Kansas

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Kansas in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Kansas in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 76.2% for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.737) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.025).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4962 6.46%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4237 -1.31%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.2257 -3.49%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.1085 -0.85%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0960 -5.75%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1085 0.88%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0186 -0.43%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.2944 2.54%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0019 -0.03%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0193 0.10%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0156 -0.18%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4317 -5.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2675 -3.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0478 0.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0539 -0.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0835 1.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0220 -0.31%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3293 6.47%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0763 0.96%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.1453 -2.63%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0744 2.16%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0421 -0.13%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.2557 -2.41%
Low Income 0.0081 0.5273 0.43%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0322 -0.17%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1635 2.53%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0053 -0.10%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.7041 13.30%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.1988 0.31%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.2849 -0.42%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0216 0.30%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0717 0.44%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0019 0.09%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0182 -0.09%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0736 -0.15%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0372 0.16%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.7925 1.75%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 100.0000 -1.83%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0140 2.97%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0459 3.95%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1201 2.28%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0146 -7.77%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0534 -25.97%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1298 48.79%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2461 20.27%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.0969 -8.64%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0246 11.14%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0587 13.00%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0335 2.28%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,727 for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40794) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35067).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4985 -$1,416
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.4444 -$383
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.2210 -$695
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.1011 -$535
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0716 -$434
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1170 $27
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0189 -$83
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.2959 -$688
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0015 -$9
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0169 -$46
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0145 $101
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.4386 $159
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2679 $222
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0503 -$67
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0537 $303
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0822 $333
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0193 $165
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3772 $364
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0822 $298
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.1165 -$115
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0725 -$98
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0445 -$197
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2679 $39
Low Income -332.4067 0.5102 -$170
Homeless -446.4262 0.0261 -$12
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1586 $319
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0058 -$11
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7684 $621
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 5293.2900 $1,934
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.1581 $318
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.2959 $203
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0222 -$57
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0754 $69
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0024 $37
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0198 $2
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0532 -$314
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0392 $33
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.7901 -$162
Median Days in Program 3.2489 103.0000 $335
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0140 $336
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0459 $1,484
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1201 $4,712
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0146 -$702
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0534 $217
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1298 $12,562
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2461 $13,822
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.0969 $5,586
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0246 $265
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0587 $2,327
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0335 -$204

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 54.1% for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.278) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.737).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5368 -19.40%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5708 29.78%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1098 -0.77%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0274 -2.74%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0198 5.77%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1350 -19.52%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0231 4.91%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.2075 -11.76%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0241 2.06%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0274 5.42%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.4314 -5.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2876 -5.30%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0461 0.34%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0483 -4.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0724 -1.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0121 2.22%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4830 17.61%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.1844 -5.62%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0823 -2.15%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0527 1.32%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0329 2.90%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.3304 7.05%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1449 11.31%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.7047 -0.09%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.2009 1.31%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0088 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.3425 -4.44%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0340 1.68%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0285 -0.81%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.5247 3.84%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 237.0000 8.40%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 122.0000 -2.98%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1658 -0.14%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0140 13.98%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0459 40.97%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1201 145.60%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0146 -63.87%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0534 169.31%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1298 98.36%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2461 244.34%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.0969 25.00%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0246 80.87%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0587 -0.84%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0335 -45.35%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 82.3% for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.803) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.626).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4074 2.43%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4043 0.77%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2994 -0.51%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1451 1.54%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1080 -2.06%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0895 1.06%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0340 -0.99%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.1420 -0.51%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0309 -0.30%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0093 -0.18%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.2562 -0.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.3056 -5.93%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0556 -1.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1019 -0.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1944 -2.81%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0586 -0.71%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1142 1.21%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0340 -0.09%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0463 -0.24%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0988 0.06%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0340 -0.86%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.1759 0.79%
Low Income -0.0518 0.1481 -0.77%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0031 0.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0370 1.40%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0185 -0.42%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.9136 10.33%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1111 0.64%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.6543 1.36%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0864 0.64%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.1358 0.67%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0031 -0.15%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0062 -0.08%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0031 0.25%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.7068 -3.62%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 206.0000 0.17%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0140 -2.82%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0459 -2.14%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1201 -20.49%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0146 -14.43%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0534 -33.49%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1298 -46.78%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2461 -49.09%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.0969 -27.63%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0246 7.49%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0587 7.22%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0335 1.38%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $9,855 for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 37487) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-27632).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.3993 -$759
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4209 $469
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2986 -$38
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1367 -$291
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0971 -$242
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0935 -$80
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0360 -$169
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.1475 -$227
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0288 -$101
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0072 -$27
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.2662 -$373
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2950 -$561
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0504 $4
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0899 $137
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.2050 $240
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0612 $132
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.1079 $184
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0324 $123
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0468 $13
Veteran 1445.8344 0.1007 $146
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0324 -$96
Single Parent -784.4348 0.1763 -$138
Low Income -538.7097 0.1403 -$76
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0036 $28
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0360 $65
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0180 $3
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.9281 $20
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 10491.2400 $962
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1007 $136
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.6619 $45
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0791 -$197
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1331 $23
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0036 $24
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0072 $3
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0036 -$8
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.6835 -$276
Median Days in Program 2.2222 196.0000 $436
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0140 -$380
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0459 $1,682
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1201 $5,667
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0146 -$3,793
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0534 $4,584
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1298 $12,337
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2461 $12,593
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.0969 $4,260
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0246 -$112
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0587 $1,307
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0335 -$194

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 74.2% for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.912) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.17).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5000 -7.55%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4306 -2.82%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2986 7.21%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1667 7.63%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0486 4.44%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0764 -5.08%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0208 -1.11%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.1597 -5.26%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0278 7.35%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0417 0.21%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3264 -6.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1944 -4.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0556 -1.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0694 1.82%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.2222 -2.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.1042 -4.45%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0833 -0.18%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0625 -1.65%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0139 -2.01%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0764 -7.05%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0347 1.57%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.1181 4.36%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0347 1.63%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.9306 2.67%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1111 4.31%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0764 2.72%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.2222 -1.37%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0069 -0.30%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0139 -5.38%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.5625 -5.42%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 151.0000 -4.85%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 95.0000 -2.60%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1875 3.04%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0140 -11.28%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0459 20.42%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1201 118.35%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0146 -85.55%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0534 65.10%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1298 208.45%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2461 176.29%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.0969 14.65%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0246 160.70%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0587 -16.71%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0335 -36.22%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 75.6% for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.059) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.816).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5081 3.02%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0023 0.03%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2425 -3.48%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3072 -6.31%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2032 0.21%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.1247 -0.78%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0092 0.18%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.2379 -0.98%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0046 -0.25%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0254 -0.85%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0323 0.49%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4342 3.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0439 -1.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0046 0.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0092 0.46%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2494 6.85%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1455 0.52%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.3025 -1.42%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0046 -0.06%
Low Income 0.0375 0.6697 2.51%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0393 -0.79%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1940 1.23%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0300 -0.03%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2610 -1.87%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.5035 1.76%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.3233 -2.80%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.2194 -0.95%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.2425 1.07%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0508 -0.77%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0670 0.50%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0739 -0.25%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0162 0.06%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.6236 0.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.4065 0.60%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 242.5000 -0.97%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0140 -9.47%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0459 -8.63%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1201 -16.34%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0146 -10.63%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0534 -11.40%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1298 -33.19%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2461 0.61%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.0969 -3.82%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0246 -26.56%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0587 19.36%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0335 -4.98%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,080 for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14675) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11595).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5325 -$999.78
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0000 $0.00
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2012 -$263.43
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3034 -$323.57
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2198 $142.77
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.1238 $236.96
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0124 $8.05
Race: Black -886.3703 0.2353 -$208.56
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0031 -$10.49
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0279 -$5.14
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0372 $34.67
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.4706 $651.27
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0557 -$46.15
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0062 $1.07
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0124 $82.63
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.2879 $176.72
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1393 $76.10
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.3127 -$154.84
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0031 $7.60
Low Income -305.7985 0.6780 -$207.34
Homeless 983.9044 0.0495 $48.74
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1858 -$238.64
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0217 $21.88
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2817 $240.75
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.4830 -$136.91
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.2910 -$183.42
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.2384 -$110.28
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.2601 $41.92
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0372 -$6.84
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0619 -$102.71
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0588 -$31.74
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0186 $1.94
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.6006 -$2.60
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.4056 -$11.30
Median Days in Program 0.5942 243.5000 $144.69
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0140 -$44.27
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0459 $504.55
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1201 $2,589.22
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0146 -$808.26
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0534 $2,391.24
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1298 $1,846.11
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2461 $5,013.54
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.0969 $686.62
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0246 $1,403.07
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0587 $2,557.12
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0335 -$337.64

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 54.6% for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.027) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.481).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.6235 -17.20%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0024 -0.20%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3790 -34.20%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2885 -20.19%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1663 -27.27%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.1760 -0.30%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0196 -0.03%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.2567 0.11%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0342 -0.54%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0636 12.54%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.2641 -7.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0367 3.86%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0024 -0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0000 0.00%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2738 0.60%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.6626 13.09%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.1174 0.23%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.2738 -1.95%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0562 1.54%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0856 4.74%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0171 -1.52%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.3178 -1.60%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 178.0000 -5.81%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0880 -3.03%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0140 10.65%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0459 43.94%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1201 70.03%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0146 -62.39%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0534 -76.02%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1298 187.96%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2461 173.83%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.0969 61.02%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0246 125.08%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0587 -43.08%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0335 -3.90%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 70.7% for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.356) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.649).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4071 3.26%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4686 5.09%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1776 -1.53%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0840 -0.06%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0741 -0.47%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1399 3.25%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0216 -0.51%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.1925 -3.10%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0041 0.40%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0262 -0.80%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0188 0.46%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4573 -0.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2159 0.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0305 -0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0457 1.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0685 -4.64%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0177 -0.93%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.2456 2.12%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0935 -0.84%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0890 -3.17%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0910 1.98%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0362 -0.07%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.2105 4.27%
Low Income 0.0926 0.2137 1.98%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0189 -0.13%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0725 1.34%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0085 -0.20%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6891 21.87%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0896 -1.38%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.4423 -1.70%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0069 -0.06%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0075 -0.09%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0200 2.17%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0089 -0.50%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 34.0000 -0.94%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0140 2.35%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0459 7.07%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1201 12.16%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0146 -0.67%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0534 15.82%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1298 12.24%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2461 31.58%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.0969 5.73%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0246 9.60%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0587 9.98%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0335 1.15%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,570 for Kansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41220) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35650).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4053 -$1,125
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4842 $739
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.1820 $41
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0818 $141
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0565 $225
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1451 $219
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0228 -$29
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.1951 -$571
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0039 -$10
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0251 -$140
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0178 $190
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4668 -$823
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2239 -$488
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0306 -$67
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0470 $99
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0690 $5
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0163 -$82
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.2787 $127
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0835 -$96
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0672 -$343
Veteran -913.8967 0.0841 -$77
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0380 $59
Single Parent 660.1018 0.2190 $145
Low Income 634.4633 0.2035 $129
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0147 -$52
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0674 $129
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0078 -$85
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8012 -$176
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5587.8400 $1,459
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0694 $54
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.4590 $209
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0064 $2
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0077 -$9
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0131 $142
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0086 $14
Median Days in Program 0.8717 32.0000 $28
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0140 $517
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0459 $1,962
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1201 $5,729
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0146 $165
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0534 $3,342
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1298 $8,814
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2461 $12,672
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.0969 $4,167
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0246 $1,024
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0587 $3,014
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0335 -$170

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x